On April 21, 2019, South Asia witnessed the worst ever terror attack, in terms of fatalities, recorded in the region till date. On Easter Sunday (April 21), Islamist terrorists carried out eight coordinated suicide bomb attacks within a span of six hours (8:45am to 2:45am, SST). The attacks which targeted three Churches and three major hotels across the three main cities – Colombo, Negombo and Batticaloa – of Sri Lanka, resulted in fatalities of at least 253 persons, including 250 civilians and three Security Force (SF) personnel.
The previous worst attack in the region was recorded on March 12, 1993, in Mumbai (Maharashtra) in India, when the city was rocked by a series of bomb explosions within a span of two and a half hours (1:30pm to 4:00pm, IST) which had resulted in death of 253 persons. At least 713 persons had sustained injuries in the attack. The Mumbai attacks were masterminded by Dawood Ibrahim, whose D-Company has now established close associations with the Islamist terrorist formations operating out of Pakistan. Dawood Ibrahim is globally one of the most wanted terrorists.
South Asia has for long faced Islamist terrorism and, since 2005, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the region has accounted for at least 71,400 Islamist terrorism-linked fatalities: 24,766 civilians; 8,218 SF personnel; 38,416 militants (data till April 28, 2019). Pakistan accounted for 62,535 such fatalities, followed by India (7,828), Bangladesh (760) and Sri Lanka (277).
Nevertheless, the attacks in Sri Lanka, and developments in recent pasts in Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, and the Maldives, demonstrate that threats from this form of terrorism remain as alive, and have the potential to gain significant momentum at any juncture in these countries if there is any slackness on the part of the Government in the policy making and the SFs on ground.
Left-Wing Extremism (LWE), which has also afflicted wide areas in the region, has also been on a decline. According to the SATP database, since 2005, the region has accounted for at least 11,654 LWE-linked fatalities (3,757 civilians, 2,532 SF personnel, 5,365 militants, data till April 28, 2019). India accounted for 8,260 such fatalities, followed by Nepal 2,623 Bangladesh 758 and Bhutan, 13.
418 Maoist fatalities were recorded in 2018 up from 348 in 2017. There have already been 102 such fatalities in 2019. Though fatalities in this category have maintained a cyclical trend since 2010 it has never crossed three digits thereafter. There were a total of 1,268 LWE-linked fatalities in 2010. Significantly, the two decade-long Maoist insurgency in Nepal ended with a peace agreement in 2006, removing one of the principal theatres of LWE violence from the conflict map.
Bangladesh, mounting SF pressure has forced LWEs to stop their violent activities. Indeed, the last incident of killing by LWEs was recorded on December 9, 2013, when suspected LWEs killed a local trader in the Santhia sub-District of Pabna District.
Developments in India, nevertheless, demonstrate that the residual potential of LWE groups is significant. In India, the intermittent and audacious attacks of the recent past clearly indicate that the Maoists still possess the wherewithal, albeit diminishing, to strike at will.
Total terrorism and insurgency linked fatalities in South Asia (including Islamist and LWE) have dropped from a peak of 29,638 (of which 15,565 were in Sri Lanka alone) in 2009, to just 1,648 in 2018, the lowest fatalities recorded in a year since 2005. There were 2,145 fatalities in 2017. Such fatalities have been in continuous decline since 2010.
However, the situation in Afghanistan remains dire. According to partial data compiled by SATP, 3,705 fatalities have already been recorded, including 124 civilians, 394 SF personnel and 3,182 insurgents, in 503 incidents of killing in 2019 (data till April 28). During the corresponding period in 2018, 5,345 fatalities, including 285 civilians, 252 SF personnel and 4,502 insurgents, were recorded in 705 incidents of killing. Through 2018, fatalities totaled 14,581, including 1,076 civilians, 1,526 SF personnel and 11,684 Insurgents, in 1,758 incidents of killing.
Casualties among civilians, the best indicator of the prevailing security scenario in any theatre of conflict, have been rising in Afghanistan since 2014, with the exception of 2017. 2018 registered 3,804 fatalities among civilians, the highest ever recorded by the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan UNAMA since 2009 [when UNAMA first began counting civilian fatalities]. The previous high of 3,701 civilian fatalities was recorded in 2014. Fatalities in the civilian category remained under 3,000 for four out of the five years between 2009 and 2013. Civilian fatalities stood at 3,133 in 2011.
Nevertheless, South Asia remains among the most violent region globally
South Asia had the highest impact of terrorism on average in 2017, and has had the highest average score on the GTI of any region for the past 16 years. Bhutan was the only country in South Asia not to record a death from terrorism in 2017 and is the only South Asian country to have less than a thousand deaths from terrorism since 2002.
As well as accounting for the highest number of total deaths, MENA [Middle east and North Africa], South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa also had the most lethal terrorist attacks on average, with 2.75, 1.85 and 4.35 people killed per attack respectively.
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