In Iraq, a power struggle is taking place between the influential Shi’ite cleric Moqtada Sadr
and Iran-backed Shi’ite rivals. The tussle is over who gets to form the next government in Iraq.
The Shi’ite community that has dominated Iraqi politics since the U.S.-led invasion that toppled Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003.
Who are Sadr and Rivals?
Heir to a prominent clerical dynasty, Sadr commanded a powerful militia, the Mehdi Army, in the years after the US invasion, but officially disbanded it in 2008. Its successor, the Peace Brigades, retains thousands of armed fighters.
He exercises big sway in the state, where his supporters herald many positions. He has emphasised his credentials as an Iraqi nationalist in recent years, opposing the influence of both the United States and Iran.
His Iran backed rivals form an alliance called the Coordination Framework, which includes Tehran-aligned politicians such as former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki and paramilitary groups armed and trained by Iran.
Many of these groups’ ties to Tehran date to the Iran-Iraq war, when Iran supported Shi’ite insurgents against Saddam. Each side accuses the other of corruption.
| A short insight into the Iraq’s political system Under Ottoman rule, Iraq was divided into distinct administrative regions called “villayets,” with provincial capitals in Basra, Baghdad, and Mosul. Arab Sunnis represented only about 20 percent of the population, but the Ottomans assigned them leading positions in overall administration. When the modern state of Iraq was created after World War I, Britain preserved the dominant role of the Arab Sunni elite. Though they constituted a majority of the population, Arab Shi’a were marginalized by the Ottomans, British, and Ba’athists. The Republic of Iraq’s legal system is in a period of transition in light of the U.S.-led invasion in 2003 that led to the fall of the Baath Party. Iraq does have a written constitution, as well as a civil, criminal and personal status law. Now it is a multi-party system whereby the executive power is exercised by the Prime Minister of the Council of Ministers as the head of government, as well as the President of Iraq, and legislative power is vested in the Council of Representatives and the Federation Council. |
Reason behind the recent tension
Tensions have worsened since an October election in which Sadr’s movement emerged as the biggest bloc with 74 of parliament’s 329 seats and the Iran-backed factions’ share slumped to 17 from a previous 48.
Despite their diminished numbers in parliament, the Iran-aligned groups managed to hinder Sadr by denying the two-thirds quorum needed to elect a Kurdish head of state, the first step towards forming a government.
Frustrated at the deadlock, Sadr instructed his lawmakers to quit parliament in June. The move ceded dozens of seats to the Coordination Framework, meaning it could try to form a government of its choosing, though this would risk Sadr’s wrath.
What does this mean for Iraq?
Iraq has now gone more than nine months without a new government, a record in the post-Saddam era. The standoff adds to political dysfunction in a country suffering dire public services, high poverty and widespread unemployment despite huge oil wealth and no major conflict since Islamic State’s defeat five years ago.
At a time when soaring crude prices have boosted Iraq’s oil revenues to record highs, the government has no budget for 2022 and spending on much-needed infrastructure projects and economic reforms has been delayed.
Ordinary Iraqis meanwhile suffer power and water cuts. The World Food Programme says 2.4 million of the population of 39 million are in acute need of food and livelihood assistance.
The paralysis is diverting attention from problems including soaring global food prices, drought and the lingering threat posed by Islamic State. Outgoing Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi continues in a caretaker role for now.
What are the chances of violence?
A call by the Coordination Framework for its supporters to rally on Sunday gave rise to concerns of confrontation in the streets, but it then cancelled the demonstrations.
The United Nations has called for a de-escalation, saying “voices of reason and wisdom are critical to prevent further violence”. Many Iraqi leaders have also called for the preservation of civil peace.
Sadr has vowed peaceful political action, but is backed up by the armed Peace Brigades and many of his civilian followers keep weapons, stoking fears of armed clashes if the standoff escalates.
Conflict among Iraqi Shi’ites would be bad news for Iran, which has carved out major influence in Iraq through its Shi’ite allies since the United States toppled its foe Saddam.
U.S interest
The United States, which maintains several thousand troops in Iraq to support and train the country’s army, currently pursues two main interests there: containing the remnant of the Islamic State and reducing Iran’s influence.
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